Single-Point Estimating is an estimating method that involves using data to calculate a single value that reflects a best guess estimate.
It provides one numeric estimate for cost, duration, or effort, based on expert judgment, historical information, or assumptions, and does not account for variability or uncertainty.
Key Characteristics
- Single Value Output – Offers one estimate rather than a range
- Simple and Quick – Less complex than three-point or probabilistic estimating
- Assumption-Driven – Based on a defined set of known inputs and conditions
- Limited Risk Consideration – Does not explicitly account for variability or confidence levels
Example Scenarios
- Estimating a task will take exactly 5 days based on a similar past effort
- Using vendor pricing to estimate procurement cost without adjustment
- Assigning a $10,000 estimate to a deliverable based on expert opinion
Role in Project Estimating
- Useful in Early Stages – Applied when limited information is available
- Feeds Baseline Development – Supports creation of schedule and cost baselines
- Requires Validation – Best used alongside risk assessments or contingency plans
- Less Accurate Under Uncertainty – May lead to rework or variance when conditions shift
See also: Three-Point Estimating, Analogous Estimating, Parametric Estimating, Estimate at Completion (EAC), Reserve Analysis.